BOZEMAN — After Tuesday’s primary elections, the general election fields are set in Montana’s three congressional races. Candidates are now turning their attention away from difference within their parties and starting to bring out their messages against the other party.
On Wednesday, shortly after Republican Aaron Flint and Democrat Sam Forstag were confirmed as nominees for Montana’s western U.S. House seat, both parties’ national congressional campaigns were sending out press releases on the race. Democrats are seeking to tie Flint to President Donald Trump’s policies on issues like health care and the Iran war. Republicans are calling Forstag too far left for Montana and highlighting his ties to leaders like U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Jeremy Johnson, a professor and chair of Carroll College’s Department of Political Science and International Relations, says it’s getting harder in a polarized country for candidates to separate themselves from their parties.
“In a midterm election, you cannot escape the president who's in office,” he said. “The Republican Party will want to make it a choice, and a Democrat Party will probably want to make a referendum.”
(Watch the video for more of Johnson's reactions to Tuesday's results.)
Montana hasn’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. House in more than 30 years, but the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee identified the western congressional district as a target months ago. The seat is currently held by Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, who decided not to run again.
Johnson said the district leans Republican, but it could be competitive if the national political environment continues to trend toward Democrats.
In Montana’s U.S. Senate race, Republican Kurt Alme and Democrat Alani Bankhead advanced into a general election race where Seth Bodnar – running as an independent – remains a wild card.
“What I imagine is the Republicans would prefer to be running against two different candidates, a Democrat and an independent,” Johnson said. “If that could be consolidated down to one candidate, it'd be interesting to see what that could look like in November.”
The Democratic Senate primary saw a late flood of spending by outside groups – much of it in support of Bankhead. That fueled speculation that those groups hoped Bankhead would drop out of the race to allow Bodnar to consolidate support. In Nebraska, an independent candidate ran competitively against a Republican senator in 2024 after Democrats didn’t field a candidate of their own.
Bankhead denied any such plan, telling MTN Tuesday and reiterating on social media Wednesday that she is not quitting the race.
Bodnar has raised more money than any other Senate candidate, including Alme – and significantly more than Bankhead. After Alme – Sen. Steve Daines' chosen successor – secured the Republican nomination Tuesday night, GOP-linked groups issued statements on the race that focused more attacks on Bodnar than on Bankhead.
In 2022, there was a congressional race with a Republican, a Democrat and an independent on the ballot, in Montana’s eastern congressional district. Republican U.S. Rep. Matt Rosendale still won 56% of the vote, with independent Gary Buchanan and Democrat Penny Ronning splitting 42% between them.
Johnson says that result is an indication of the challenge ahead of Brian Miller, who won the Democratic nomination this year in that eastern district, generally considered a strongly Republican area. Miller will now appear in the general election against Republican Rep. Troy Downing.
“He needs to have the political environment in his favor, of course, but he'll need to even go beyond that and find a way to convince normally Republican voters in this race to support a Democrat,” said Johnson.
There’s also likely to be an independent on the ballot in the eastern district House race, as Michael Eisenhauer is on track to get enough signatures to qualify for the general election.
In addition, there will be Libertarian candidates on the ballot in all three of these races. The Libertarians are the only third party in Montana that receive automatic ballot access.
However, Kyle Austin, who won the Libertarian primary for U.S. Senate, has been disavowed by the state party, which said in a news release that he didn’t represent libertarian principles. The party has endorsed Nick Sheedy, running in the western House race, and Patrick McCracken, running in the eastern House race.
