NORTHCENTRAL MONTANA — For ranchers across northcentral Montana, drought has become a familiar, and unpredictable, cycle. This year marks another chapter in a pattern of dry conditions that has reshaped how hay is grown, bought, and moved across the state.
In places like Choteau, Augusta, and Bynum, the impacts went beyond low rainfall. Producers say even normally reliable ground struggled to produce.
“So normally up there, it’s around a ton and a half to the acre… we should get four or five hundred ton,” said owner of K&S Hydroseeding, Kelly Ketcham. “But this year, we just didn’t get anything.”
Irrigation didn’t offer much relief. Reservoirs ran dry in parts of northcentral Montana, leaving irrigated fields stressed long before summer rains arrived.
“Our irrigated place is up there and there was no irrigation water,” said Brock Hodgkiss of Mountain View Livestock. “Where we usually produce four to five ton of hay, we barely grew six inches and didn’t get much moisture until July.”
By the time rain finally came, many fields were already too stressed to recover. Instead of boosting production, the late moisture fueled weed growth, cutting into already limited hay supplies heading into winter.
“By July, everything was so stunted or stressed that the weeds just came up,” Hodgkiss said. “It was really hard on that alfalfa. It just didn’t want to do anything.”
While northcentral Montana producers struggled, drought conditions weren’t uniform across the state. Other regions, including Townsend, Helena, Lewistown, and parts of southeastern Montana, saw stronger hay yields. That contrast triggered ripple effects across Montana’s hay market.
The result was hay moving long distances within the state.
“Most of the hay we’re hauling is coming from about 150 to 200 miles away,” Hodgkiss said. “We’re lucky it’s that close. It could be from North Dakota.”
Those miles add up. Freight can tack on an additional $40 to $50 per ton, turning already tight margins into a major challenge for ranchers trying to feed cattle through winter.
This year, however, record-high cattle prices helped soften the blow. Some ranchers chose to buy hay despite the cost. Others made a different decision, selling cattle instead.
“A lot of people are making that decision,” Hodgkiss said. “Either buy a bunch of hay or sell a bunch of cows for the record highs, the most they’ve ever been paid for cattle.”
Those choices are reshaping Montana’s cattle industry. Years of drought, rising costs, and an aging ranching population have pushed some producers to downsize or exit altogether, driving cattle numbers down statewide.
As ranchers look ahead, attention is already shifting to winter and what it may or may not bring.
“We’re just not getting the early snow,” Ketcham said. “Later, we’re getting snow. But that early snow is just not there to build on. And so we’re really struggling with irrigation water because there isn’t a snowpack like we used to have.”
Snowpack and spring runoff will be critical for irrigation-dependent operations next year. Until then, many producers are holding onto hay, blending lower-quality feed, and preparing for another uncertain season, knowing Montana can swing from surplus to shortage in a matter of months.
“At the end of the day, it’s a market that changes yearly,” Ketcham said. “Normally, when we have moisture, it’s a softer market. But the way the last five years have been, and the way the winter is coming on, I think the hay market will stay strong for a few years to come.”
