NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA — The White House signed an executive order on February 6th expanding the amount of beef the United States can import from Argentina, a move aimed at increasing supply and easing pressure on beef prices, but one that has drawn concern from cattle producers in Montana and across the country.
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Under the order, the U.S. will allow an additional 80,000 metric tons of lean beef trimmings, allocated entirely to Argentina, to enter the country under a tariff-rate quota. The beef will be released on a first-come, first-served basis in four quarterly tranches of 20,000 metric tons each, beginning on February 13th and continuing through the end of the year.
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In the executive order, the White House points to a long-term decline in domestic cattle numbers as a key factor behind the policy. Federal data shows the U.S. cattle herd has continued to shrink in recent years, tightening supply amid strong consumer demand.
According to the latest report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, all cattle and calves in the United States totaled about 86.2 million head as of January 1, 2026, slightly below last year’s inventory. Beef cow numbers were down one percent from a year earlier, and the 2025 calf crop fell two percent, signaling slower herd rebuilding.
Take a closer look at the Jan. 1, 2026, report by the USDA
According to reports, during the National Cattlemen's Beef Association annual conference, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr. said expanding the domestic herd is critical to increasing long-term beef supply and reducing reliance on imports. Until that happens, the administration argues imports can help fill supply gaps and keep prices from rising further.
What could consumer impact look like?
Producer organizations, such as the Montana Cattlemen’s Association and the Montana Stockgrowers Association, say they don’t expect the expanded imports to significantly lower prices for consumers immediately, but warn the decision could still affect producers.
Tim Brunner, the western district director of the Montana Cattlemen’s Association and a producer out of Fairfield, says the additional imports are unlikely to make a noticeable difference at the meat counter.
Brunner says while imported lean beef trimmings are primarily used in ground products, blending foreign beef into the supply chain could still put downward pressure on what producers receive for their cattle.
The Montana Stockgrowers Association echoed those concerns, noting that even modest changes in imports can influence markets.
Association President Lesley Robinson said cattle markets are highly sensitive to policy announcements and that producers may feel the effects before consumers do. Robinson also raised concerns about relying more heavily on imported beef, citing differences in traceability and production standards compared to U.S. beef.
“We raise a very healthy, safe product in the United States,” Robinson said, adding that maintaining confidence in domestic beef remains a priority for producers.
Timing and volume play a significant role in implementation
Sean Sayers, owner of Red Flame Ranch near Loma, said the conversation around imports can’t be separated from herd size.
Since the 1950s, Sayers said, the U.S. population has more than doubled, while the national cattle herd has dropped to levels not seen since the early 1950s. That imbalance, he said, is a major reason beef prices have climbed.
Sayers noted that most imported beef is used in ground products, while premium cuts like steaks and roasts still largely come from U.S. cattle. Even so, he said, the impact on producers depends on how much beef enters the market and how quickly it moves through the supply chain.
“At some point, it becomes an economic tipping point,” Sayers said, explaining that added supply suggests downward pressure on prices, even if the product differs from locally raised beef.
Herd rebuilding remains a challenge
While federal officials have urged producers to retain cattle to help rebuild the herd, Montana producers say that goal comes with real obstacles.
Drought conditions, rising input costs, and limited processing capacity have made it difficult for some ranchers to hold back replacement heifers. Robinson said keeping agricultural land in production and improving producer profitability are key to long-term herd growth.
Sayers said expanding local processing and strengthening farm-to-table operations could help ranchers capture more value while meeting consumer demand for locally raised beef.
At the same time, producers warn that beef must remain affordable for consumers. If prices rise too high, Sayers said households may shift toward other proteins like pork or poultry, a change that could affect long-term demand for beef.
“If the price of beef gets on a runaway, at some point the American household is going to say, ‘We can’t afford this anymore,’” he explained.
Looking ahead
For now, producers are watching closely as the first tranche of Argentine beef imports begins to enter the U.S. market, and as broader conversations about herd rebuilding, processing capacity, and domestic production continue.
