Stock indexes were mixed Friday as a lack of economic data muddied the waters for investors. And analysts preparing their outlooks for 2026 are doing so without key economic information due to the government shutdown.
The Nasdaq closed higher Friday with a gain of 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average trimmed its loss to 309 points after being down nearly 600 points earlier in the day.
This slight recovery follows Thursday's closing plunge, marking the worst single day drop for the S&P 500 in a month.
Despite the government shutdown coming to an end, the economic effects will linger, according to Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council.
"Our council of economic advisors said that it cost about $15 billion a week," he said on Thursday.
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Investors initially entered the second half of the year expecting multiple rate cuts, according to Investopedia's Caleb Silver.
With delayed economic data, like the monthly jobs report and inflation metrics, traders now question whether a December cut to interest rates will actually happen.
"Now the picture looks a little bit cloudier because we don't have hard government data, but the Federal Reserve is looking at the fact that prices continue to rise, that's inflation, due to tariffs and other causes, and the labor market is slowing," Silver said.
On Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt blamed Democrats for the lack of "critical government data."
"The democrats may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released," Leavitt said.
On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced it will release information regarding September employment on Nov. 20. This will be the first look at any jobs data from the government since the start of the government shutdown.
Hassett said data will be compiled and released as it's available but confirms some information will stay in the dark.
"We will never know what the unemployment rate was in October because there wasn't a household survey," Hassett explained. A delayed October jobs report would still include a nonfarm payroll count, but the household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived wasn't completed.
With high valuations and anxiety around an AI bubble, Silver said it's understandable for investors to be on edge.
"A pullback like this, 5% or so is not crazy, especially in a year where we've had such aggressive gains," Silver said.
The Federal Reserve meets again in early December. The Fed cut its interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point at each of the previous two meetings after holding steady for the bulk of the year.
What Fed officials will decide in December is a tossup. Especially with missing and delayed data points, another rate cut is not guaranteed. Cutting rates would help protect the labor market, but keeping rates the same is a move to help combat inflation.
