Discussion:
Rapid mountain snowmelt and several days of heavy rainfall led to historic flooding in Yellowstone National Park last week. It is quite a different story just a few hours north in central Montana where extreme to exceptional drought continues. 84% of the state remains in some level of drought.
Spring precipitation was substantial for some, not so much for others. Regardless, most areas are not caught up on water year precipitation.
In fact, most locations are running 2-3"+ below what would be expected at this point in June.
An upper level low develops over southwestern Montana Sunday night and looks to bring a substantial round of rainfall to central Montana.
The rain begins overnight and continues throughout most of the day on Monday. Periods of moderate to heavy rain are likely during the morning and afternoon.
Most locations receive 0.5-1.25" of precipitation through Tuesday morning, However, locations caught in heavier rain bands could receive as much as 2" of rainfall. The highest likelihood of that looks to be just northwest of Great Falls. Rainfall amounts drop off quickly to the west of Great Falls. Ponding on the roadways is likely in addition to some minor flooding on smaller creeks and streams.
Sunday night: Showers, with isolated thunderstorms possible. The rain could be heavy at times. Overnight temperatures will fall into the upper 40s.
Monday: Cool with showers. Rain could be heavy at times. High temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Showers taper overnight, with mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures fall into the mid 40s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and comfortable. Highs in the mid 70s. Mostly clear overnight as temperatures fall into the upper 40s.
Wednesday: Turning warmer with highs in the lower 80s. Abundant sunshine. Clear overnight as temperatures fall into the lower 50s.
Thursday: Sunny and warm. Highs in the mid 80s. A few more clouds overnight as temperatures fall into the lower 50s.
Friday: Mostly sunny with a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows in the upper 40s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and a bit cooler. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows in the mid 40s.
Sunday: Sunny and dry. Highs in the upper 70s.
