North Central Montana is seeing early signs of drought concerns after December and January began drier than normal, particularly in lower elevations where snow cover and rainfall have been limited.
Brianna Juneau reports - watch the video here:
According to the National Weather Service, several areas across Central and North Central regions received well below average precipitation to start the winter season.
In the images below, red and orange colors indicate drought conditions and soil moisture within those locations.
“If we were to continue on the below average path of snow water equivalent, that's certainly going to impact agriculture quite a bit,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Jane Fogleman. “Fortunately, it is early in the season so there’s no need to panic just yet.”
While the dry start is concerning, meteorologists stress it is still too early to draw conclusions about how the rest of the year will unfold. Locations east of the Continental Divide in Montana typically receive the bulk of their moisture during the spring months, meaning there is still time for conditions to improve.
“As we move closer to spring, that’s when we normally see the most precipitation in this part of the state,” Fogleman said. “So there’s still an opportunity for the forecast to shift toward more average moisture.”
Current long-range outlooks lean toward near to below-average precipitation through late winter, influenced in part by a weak La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean. While La Niña conditions often favor colder temperatures and often, better moisture across parts of the Northern Plains and Montana, the weak pattern has resulted in lower moisture for lower elevations.
Mountain snowpack has continued to steadily build this season, however, forecasters say the La Niña pattern is not locked in.
“There’s a possibility that the Pacific pattern could transition toward El Niño later this year,” Fogleman said. “If that happens, it could support closer-to-average precipitation as we head toward late spring and early summer, especially around June.”
Mountain snowpack will remain a key factor to watch in the coming weeks, as additional snowfall at higher elevations could help offset some of the early-season dryness and support water supplies downstream.
Meteorologists emphasize that while the dry start is worth monitoring, it is not cause for alarm just yet.
“This is definitely something to keep an eye on,” Fogleman said. “But it’s still early in the season, and a lot can change before we reach peak moisture months.”
For now, residents, agricultural producers, and water managers are encouraged to stay informed as winter continues and spring approaches.
Montana residents can now report drought conditions from their location to the National Weather Service to aid in accurate condition reporting. Those interested can do so here.
