A WINTER STORM WATCH is in effect for the Absaroka, Beartooth, Centennial, and Crazy mountains as well as the Gallatin and Madison County Mountains from 6pm Sunday until 12pm/6pm Monday.
We are going to have partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and mainly dry conditions tonight. The wind is also going to gradually diminish as we go through this evening and the first half of tonight, with just a little breeze around after midnight. It is also going to be cool tonight as lows are going to be in the 30s in most locations.
For tomorrow, we are going to have partly to mostly sunny skies with some scattered showers/thunderstorms around during the afternoon/evening, mainly in central Montana (including around Great Falls, Helena, and Lewistown) and in western portions of north-central Montana (including along the Rocky Mountain Front). These showers/storms will gradually taper off after the sun sets. Gusty winds, small hail, and brief, heavy rainfall will be the main hazards with any storms that do develop later on tomorrow.
It is also going to be mild tomorrow as highs are going to be in the mid to upper 60s and low 70s in most locations. This warmth and moisture will be courtesy of an unstable southwesterly flow aloft as we are going to be in between an upper-level ridge and an upper-level trough. There is also going to be a bit of a breeze around tomorrow along the eastern half of the Hi-Line as sustained wind speeds are going to be between 10 and 20 mph. Elsewhere, there is going to be little to no wind around tomorrow.
There are then going to be some scattered showers and thunderstorms around on Sunday, mainly during the afternoon/evening and generally in central Montana and in western portions of north-central Montana, as a storm system begins to pass by our area to the south. Scattered lower elevation rain and mountain snow showers will continue Sunday night, generally in central Montana, with the snow levels getting lower as the night goes on. On Monday, we are going to have decreasing clouds with some rain and mountain snow showers around during the morning in central Montana as this storm system pulls away from our area. Some lower elevation locations may also see some wet snow Monday morning depending on how low the snow levels get (right now snow levels will likely bottom out between 4000 and 5000 feet).
From tomorrow morning through Monday evening, the highest precipitation amounts will be in southern Montana and the lowest precipitation amounts will be in northern Montana. In north-central Montana, most locations (like Cut Bank, Fort Benton, Havre, and Glasgow) will receive <.25” of rain, with a lot of locations likely receiving <.1” of precipitation. In central Montana, including the Great Falls, Helena, and Lewistown areas, .1” to .5” of precipitation is expected, with .5” to 1” of precipitation expected in the mountains. In southern Montana, over 1” of precipitation is possible in some areas. Higher precipitation amounts than forecasted are possible in locations that see some thunderstorms this weekend.
On Sunday, we are going to have a wide range of temperatures as highs are going to range from the mid 50s to the mid 70s, with the warmest temperatures in northeastern Montana. Cooler temperatures are then expected on Monday as highs are going to be back in the 50s and low 60s in most locations. There is also going to be a bit of a breeze around in some areas on these two days as sustained wind speeds are going to be between 10 and 20 mph.
Some more scattered showers are then possible on Tuesday and Wednesday, especially from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, as another disturbance passes through our area. We are also going to have mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday and partly cloudy skies on Wednesday. Gusty winds are also expected on Tuesday as sustained wind speeds are going to be between 10 and 25 mph, and wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible. There is then just going to be a little breeze (5-20 mph) around on Wednesday. We are also going to have seasonable temperatures on these two days as highs are going to be in the mid to upper 50s and low to mid 60s in most locations.
An upper-level ridge will then build into our area for the end of next week providing us with lots of sunshine, dry conditions, and much warmer temperatures as highs are going to be in the mid to upper 60s and low to mid 70s on Thursday and the mid to upper 70s and low 80s on Friday. There is also going to be a little breeze around on these two days as sustained wind speeds are going to be between 5 and 20 mph.
